Political Predictions for New Year By RICHARD BRODSKY
I always thought it remarkable that journalists got to rip apart events after the fact. That's too easy. The trick is to figure things out before they occur. New Year political predictions are a perfect place to begin.
Two caveats: First, events and therefore predictions will be dominated by Andrew Cuomo. Second, 50 percent accuracy counts as a home run. I hope this is worth reading a year from now.
CUOMO-KLEIN: The key dynamic in Albany will be how long the Cuomo-Jeff Klein relationship lasts. It's served both men well. But Cuomo, who is tacking to the right on economic issues to forestall the Republican candidate, is under state and national pressure to create a Democratic majority in the Senate. He'll work with the Republicans and the Klein-led Independent Democratic Caucus through the budget. He needs them to push his tax cuts, something regular Dems don't like. He'll then pivot and try to broker a Democratic reconciliation, or push for the regular Dems in primary elections.
CUOMO-SILVER: Shelly Silver, the great survivor, is recovering his strength. He shines in the kind of budget negotiations that are about to begin. His members and interest groups will see him as the best chance to stop or mitigate Cuomo's estate and business tax cuts that are so unpopular with most Dems. Cuomo will see the same thing. Both men need each other, so an accommodation is likely. Shelly gets re-elected speaker, with Cuomo's grudging OK.
CUOMO-RODHAM CLINTON: Cuomo has read the handwriting on the wall, and has correctly figured out that he doesn't win against Hillary, electorally or even PR-wise. An uneasy peace reigns. Neither one will do much to affect Cuomo's very likely re-election or her probable ascension to the presidency. But if you hear teeth grinding in both camps, don't be surprised.
CUOMO-DeBLASIO: The most intriguing relationship of all. They need each other, and get along personally. But they're polar opposites on economic policy and in their needs in 2014. DeBlasio needs cash for the city; Cuomo wants tax cuts. They will both try to negotiate a deal. Watch Howard Glaser for Cuomo and Dean Fuleihan for DeBlasio, both skilled deal-makers. But if it falls apart, it will not be pretty.
CUOMO-EVERYONE ELSE: Schneiderman, DiNapoli, the unions, the business community, interest groups and eventually voters will knuckle under to New York's most effective political operation since Nelson Rockefeller. Cuomo is a strong governor and no one — no one — wants to get in his way. His vulnerability is on policy and fiscal matters, but his $30 million war chest, take-no-prisoners style and the collapse of the Republican Party is powerful stuff.
SURPRISES: Watch the Conservative and Working Families parties. Both are likely to follow the lead of the Republican and Democratic big boys.
But both will try to exact some kind of ideological victory. WFP will be pushing against the tax cuts and for campaign finance reform. Will Cuomo stiff them, or will a deal be reached?
Watch for Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner to continue as the Democrats' alternative to Cuomo. She's carved out sensible positions on the fiscal mess in local government, and has a winning way with the public. Cuomo will try to make her life miserable, but she's positioned as a leading, next-wave statewide candidate.
Cuomo, Schniederman and DiNapoli all win big in November. Unless the municipal fiscal crisis comes as hard to New York as it has in Michigan. Then it gets interesting.
Bloomberg buys a big NYC newspaper and returns to the scene. There's no predicting what happens when a politician becomes a journalist.
Happy New Year.
First published on Sunday, December 29, 2013 by the Times Union
Richard Brodsky is a fellow at the Demos think tank in New York City and at the Wagner School at New York University
This guy was an ineffective pol in Albany & now he is making predictions-what a joke.
Posted by: yonkers resident | January 06, 2014 at 10:23
http://www.bankruptcymisconduct.com/new/people/andrew-cuomo.html
This is the real governor!!
Posted by: NY | January 05, 2014 at 23:42
This fella also said that we would be in the hole for hundreds of millions of dollars yet here we are giving contracts with raises to teachers, police and little tax increases to cover them not to mention more IDA deals than you can count.
So I am going to take No heed in his findings whatsoever. His blue ribbon panel might be better of judging Holsteins!
Posted by: threesidesto truth | January 05, 2014 at 20:11
this bull as written by a democrat , who should be neither seen nor heard, shows that ABSOLUTE POWER, CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY.
Posted by: frank vecchione | January 05, 2014 at 19:58
Notice no mention of helping taxpayers or improving the economy of NY. It's all about them and their games. This what you get when you have one party rule.
Posted by: Term Limits Now | January 05, 2014 at 19:27
People of NY will continue to flock to red states and all of these political parasites will be left to feed off each other.
Posted by: Another bunch of parasites | January 05, 2014 at 13:13
I predict despite much rhetoric and bloviating that Yonkers(Getty Square) remains a squalid stink hole, a rotting hulking reminder of a citys failure to redevelope sensibly doing so without rancor from the politicos.
But thats just me.
Posted by: carlos | January 05, 2014 at 11:56
1. Brodsky will fail to realize that he is irrelevant in budget and political negotiations.
2. There will be a major scandal in the Cuomo administration that will reach very high and dampen the enthusiasm for and popularity of prince Andrew.
3. Cuomo will feel the pressure from NYC to capitulate and will not lower taxes. Instead, he will agree that NYC has long sent more to the State than it gets back so in "fairness" he will send some of NYC's money back home.
4. Cuomo will have no such revelations about Westchester County.
5. The Westchester County battle with HUD will become well known across the state as local leaders will tie Cuomo to his time as HUD director and link him and his policies to the failed Obama agenda including the push to take local control of zoning away to "increase diversity."
6. Wall street money will wake up and realize that a Republican Governor in NY State will go a long way to helping a Republican Presidential candidate in the next election and the campaign coffers of Rob Astorino and the NYS Republicans will grow exponentially.
7. Big time PAC money will see NYS as a test battleground for the household economics vs. social engineering debate that will color the next presidential election cycle and additional momey will pour in to the race against Cuomo.
8. November sees a 51-49 Republican majority in the Senate and a 51-49 victory for Rob Astorino against Andrew Cuomo setting the stage for a potential Christie-Hillary battle in 2016.
9. Hundreds of soon to be unemployed democrats file for Obamacare before it goes away and flood the offices of the other benefit providers as few have any marketable skills that would allow them to transition back in to private life.
10. Brodsky realizez in December that he didn't "hit a home run" with his predictions but toasts on New Years Eve anyway because his is a safe seat and he can count on another two years of irrelevance.
Now THAT is predicting!
Posted by: Nostra damnu's predictions | January 05, 2014 at 10:46